Saturday, May 2, 2009

Who Killed Rafik Hariri?


As followers of international affairs would know, Rafik Hariri, Prime Minister of Lebanon, was assassinated in a massive explosion in 2005. This event shook Lebanese society severely, and at the time, suspicion was aimed at Syria, and Syrian government agents, as being both motivators and participants in this murder.

S
yria has been meddling in Lebanese affairs for a number of years, and it is natural that suspicion would fall on them!

Many in Lebanon felt then, and believe today that this event was a Syrian conspiracy. They would know, wouldn't they?
They were there when it happened. My personal feeling is that the Syrian government is unlikely to have been behind Hariri's killing. They never had any real motive, or certainly not one that would overcome the liability of a major disruption in Lebanese society, a disruption that eventually resulted in the expulsion of their forces.

It is interesting to look at events in our own nation that could provide insights in to the Lebanese response. I am referring to the attack on the World Trade Center in 2001 by a group of Fundamentalist Sunni fanatics. At the time, many in our government were convinced that Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi government must somehow have been involved. In retrospect this was almost certainly not true, and even
obviously unlikely to many Americans. Most contradictory, Usama Bin Laden's involvement was well known, and Iraq under Saddam Hussein was not in any way welcoming to Muslim extremists. This aside, our government was so convinced of Iraqi involvement that it motivated military engagement of Iraq.

The tendency to blame a nation's historical enemy for society-shaking attacks such as the Hariri killing, or World Trade Center attack of 2001, is common in history, and often unjustified.

The Reichstag Fire, a key event in the years leading to WWII, was blamed at the time by the emerging Nazis as a conspiracy of German communists. In retrospect, many suspect it was the Nazis themselves who set this fire. The Assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand by Serbian nationalists in 1914 may, or may not have involved agents of the Serbian government. This made little difference to European leaders, who considered it a pretext for World War. More recently there is the Terrorist Attack at Mumbai, blamed by many in India on their historical foe Pakistan. It is unlikely there was any Pakistani government involvement.

Who was responsible for Hariri's killing then? This remains an open question. It may not have been a major conspiracy at all, and might only have involved a few participants. The size of the explosion
does not dictate the size of the conspiracy! This is an important lesson from the Murrah Federal Building Bombing in Oklahoma City.

To me, some of the circumstances surrounding the Hariri attack seem reflective of our own Oklahoma City bombing. One might do well to take a closer look
within Lebanese society for suspects, rather than blame this event automatically on external foes. There are numerous extremist factions within Lebanon who could have been responsible. As a nation, Lebanon has been in a recurring state of civil unrest for decades.

There is, of course, the question of Hezbollah. Could they have been involved? They have the means, and certainly seem to have benefited from the resulting instability. It is important to remember, however, there are credible scholars of history who take the position the Nazis had
no involvement in the burning of the German Reichstag building - It was nothing but a very fortunate event for them. This certainly could be the case with Hezbollah.



1 comment: