tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26806450970165042382024-02-07T19:35:07.675-05:00Blogs of Various Shapes and SizesA Blog devoted to both current and arcane topics in international affairs, terrorism, science, art, music, and philosophy.Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-33860427861918808412013-02-03T19:05:00.000-05:002013-02-04T21:54:13.570-05:00Does the Timothy Shepard case need a 'Post 9/11' review?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE8WpWsdiLF78sVUJh5pRheSxe1zbpAa5AKnSWpi1T9X72QqXIIC2VtUx2ZqxrmSKKwF8rc0usOOmiRDOZlS1LIezha7Y3LUh4pko7gYRvLyEt5IcnekiQ1d5BV7zCVyI5r_AabAdrrNE/s1600/timothy-shepard.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE8WpWsdiLF78sVUJh5pRheSxe1zbpAa5AKnSWpi1T9X72QqXIIC2VtUx2ZqxrmSKKwF8rc0usOOmiRDOZlS1LIezha7Y3LUh4pko7gYRvLyEt5IcnekiQ1d5BV7zCVyI5r_AabAdrrNE/s1600/timothy-shepard.jpg" /></a>Police Cadet Timothy Shepard died after what has been reported as nine hours of very demanding, Police Academy, physical and mental stress training - He lost his kidney and liver function, and eventually died after his liver transplant. Don't you find this just a little unusual? Why doesn't this happen at amateur sporting events, Iron Man competitions, or when middle aged out-of-shape men run a marathon?<br />
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Add to this indications many of the cadets <a href="http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8081389.html">dispute any form of training abuse took place</a>.<br />
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Has any one considered giving this a 'post 9/11' review?<br />
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Compare this to events a <a href="http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1989/Fort-Benning-Implementing-Stress-Management-for-Drill-Sergeants/id-5ab4b6091251d837d410a70b404adb3e">some months later at Ft. Benning GA</a>, and a police report I made to Detective Dennis Farrell of the Reading MA police department in fall of 1987 -<br />
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Consider this archived article about the <a href="http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1988/Class-Graduates-From-Police-Academy-Where-Cadet-Died-After-Rigorous-Training/id-cc8f41590ee7a0528fe58733dbe3a595">Agawam Training Outbreak</a>. It is also worth reviewing this <a href="http://www17.us.archive.org/stream/reportofinvestig1988mass/reportofinvestig1988mass_djvu.txt">detailed report of the investigation</a><br />
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It all looks very different in our post 9/11 world doesn't it? - What was the -one- scenario never considered in the investigation? And also - This may be wrong, it may be mistaken - That is not the same as it's being simply delusional.<br />
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At the very least this could an important training and preparedness exercise for the Massachusetts State Police, and Massachusetts Homeland Security. They can go back and ask - "How would this investigation have been handled post 9/11? Who would have participated? What Public Safety steps would have been taken?"<br />
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Here is a link to Timothy Shepard's <a href="http://www.odmp.org/officer/12139-officer-timothy-m-shepard">"Officer Down" memorial page</a><br />
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[ A final edit: Is the determination of "Exercise Induced Rhabdomyolisis" (EIR) plausible? Yes, indeed it is. It is also important to remember that the pattern of the outbreak was unusual enough to create initial concerns among the Agawam staff and cadets, as well as Massachusetts medical and environmental experts of <a href="http://www17.us.archive.org/stream/reportofinvestig1988mass/reportofinvestig1988mass_djvu.txt">possible toxins or infectious disease</a>. One has to consider that the circumstances, one of an outbreak rather than isolated individuals, is a rare and unusual event. It may well have been EIR, but with aggravating factors, such as a toxin. The one scenario never considered is that it was a toxin, and it was a deliberate act.<br />
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Beyond all of the newspaper headlines, and public outrage, was this training year, this class, really fundamentally different from the classes before it? The same question is relevant to the Ft. Benning outbreak - Was this class of military recruits, this training process, really fundamentally different from the training procedures before it? <br />
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So yes, Exercise Induced Rhabdomyolisis is a very likely explanation. However, rhabdomyolisis is also consistent with symptoms of a crudely manufactured chemical weapon, as might be used by religious or political extremists such as Japanese "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo">Aum Shinrikio</a>", responsible for a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin_gas_attack_on_the_Tokyo_subway">Sarin attack in the Tokyo Subway</a>.]<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUdBg1-r39ri8ST3Cq9AzXcXqz-FoHRK5rSoKgSAFWn6iYo50uWNmQPsUaHMOW4q_YQLQaHVeWuNKd7Fku-rDbg-wXDTt4tu5orgUF24nlFjppqWi0GykHSzc2mCchBs8balr6NS44N0Y/s1600/cody.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUdBg1-r39ri8ST3Cq9AzXcXqz-FoHRK5rSoKgSAFWn6iYo50uWNmQPsUaHMOW4q_YQLQaHVeWuNKd7Fku-rDbg-wXDTt4tu5orgUF24nlFjppqWi0GykHSzc2mCchBs8balr6NS44N0Y/s1600/cody.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Tim RaisbeckTim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-47537857942952062582009-12-25T11:43:00.023-05:002009-12-28T03:48:57.120-05:00Yemen - Islam in Conflict<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOFeBHR6PQZZgaSaeY0jH-yXVIEUJ1sEiXW2oMNqfIl-e-jvP9kCl6hP4finn7mMosz4Aun82r9-a3UrUDRyQZrcWQt5SuolD-6nz9dzxh8390DL2TXKsf7W1f8AO61feCCVQwJp_p3SI/s1600-h/Age_of_Caliphs.png"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 164px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOFeBHR6PQZZgaSaeY0jH-yXVIEUJ1sEiXW2oMNqfIl-e-jvP9kCl6hP4finn7mMosz4Aun82r9-a3UrUDRyQZrcWQt5SuolD-6nz9dzxh8390DL2TXKsf7W1f8AO61feCCVQwJp_p3SI/s320/Age_of_Caliphs.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5419222309530608754" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">This post is not really about what is happening in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen">Yemen</a> now. It is about what happened in Yemen </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >then</span><span style="font-size:85%;">. Historical perspective is of deep importance when dealing with a movement built on nostalgia and legend - In this case a return to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Golden_Age">Islam's golden age</a> - Al Qaeda is such a movement.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yemen, like most of the Arabian peninsula, was converted to Islam during the lifetime of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad">Prophet Muhammad</a>, noted by the dark area in the above map. It seems wonderfully simple, one might suppose - Muhammad had a revelation and started a religious movement. They raised an army and overtook Arabia! The truth is <span style="font-style: italic;">nothing like</span> simple however, and may represent one of the most complicated political, religious, and military transitions in recorded history. During the early years of Islam questions of tribal loyalty, economics, and religious faith became intermingled - Add to this a number of local "prophets", themselves claiming to be divine conduits in touch with God. Yemen figures prominently in the early history of Islam as a focus of conflict during the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridda_wars">Ridda wars</a>, or the "Wars of Apostasy".<br /><br />These Wars of Apostasy, occurring in the years immediately following the death of Muhammad, during the time of the first Caliph of Sunni Islam <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Bakr">Abu Bakr</a>, are primarily responsible for the structure and schisms seen in Islam today. It </span><span style="font-size:85%;">is this legacy that is at the foundation of the split between <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunni_Islam">Sunni Islam</a>, and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Islam">Shia Islam</a> of Persia. In Shiaism, it was not </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >Abu Bakr</span><span style="font-size:85%;">, Muhammad's father-in-law, who was the rightful heir to Islam, but his son-in-law </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >Alī ibn Abī Ṭālib</span><span style="font-size:85%;">, or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali">Ali</a> who was Muhammed's true heir as leader of the Islamic faith.<br /><br />So here we are, </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >Yemen in the 21st century!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> Just as Yemen was at the focus of conflict during the Ridda wars, it is in turmoil today. There is an active <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sa%27dah_conflict">Sunni-Shia military conflict in Yemen</a>, a growing <a href="http://www.cfr.org/publication/9369/">Al Qaeda presence</a>, and increasing concern over the stability of the country. An arena in which the fundamental legacy of Islam is <span style="font-style: italic;">still </span>being fought for is fertile ground for a self-anointed prophet like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden">Usama bin Laden</a>, whose grandiosity likely has no bounds. Sheik Bin Laden may be tempted to resolve the Sunni-Shia conflict in Yemen with his own unique fix, by inserting himself as the true "First Caliph" of the modern age, the rightful heir to Muhammad, and one of their own.</span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" > Don't underestimate the importance of tribal loyalty in Arab culture!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />It is difficult to predict how the conflict in Yemen will unfold, or the likelihood that </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >Usama Bin Laden</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> will surface there. A prior blog post discusses the search for</span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" > </span><span style="font-size:85%;">this madman, and raises questions about estimates of his current location (see <a href="http://raisbecksv.blogspot.com/2008/10/where-is-usama-bin-laden-anyway-one.html">Where is Usama bin Laden Anyway?</a>) .<br /><br />There is one safe bet though -<br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" ><span style="font-weight: bold;">I think it is safe to conclude that if we can afford to finance the search for secret messages in Al Qaeda videos, as part of our counter-terrorism effort, we can afford to fund scholars of Islamic history and the research resources they require!</span><br /><br /><br /></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-73266623515097537952009-05-16T22:58:00.046-04:002009-05-17T15:34:59.472-04:00Al Qaeda and the Deprogramming Dilemma<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMSDpPJhA-cS22U-l4s1xe8EtIYpvItVpXLReIBdVQu7KdccMS0C4wxK1WyuM__wuPi6D_HXmuoAJet3Iqeh-apXP2ota4h3by_cnCceKxdH8YctoG7vp6zUzocfT6Zl0hy7QPBpdiack/s1600-h/mansonfamily1.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 222px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMSDpPJhA-cS22U-l4s1xe8EtIYpvItVpXLReIBdVQu7KdccMS0C4wxK1WyuM__wuPi6D_HXmuoAJet3Iqeh-apXP2ota4h3by_cnCceKxdH8YctoG7vp6zUzocfT6Zl0hy7QPBpdiack/s320/mansonfamily1.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5336841293802761554" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Most are aware of the CIA interrogation debate involving treatment of detainees at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp">Guantanamo Bay</a> that is sweeping the United States media. It seems apparent that the conflict is not going to rise above partisan politics, and maybe people should not have expected it would! There is little likelihood of any substantive discussions about what interrogation is for, why people do it, and what interrogation is supposed to produce.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Interrogation is </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >supposed to produce information through cooperative exchange with the party being questioned! </span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" ><br /><br />Consider the photograph on the right - Seem like a reasonably nice bunch of hippie kids. Even today you see people like that at 'Phish' concerts wearing their parents hand-me-downs. Let's say for argument, you had reason to believe they had been involved in a violent criminal act, and you needed to interrogate them. How would you go about it? - Sleep deprivation? Waterboarding?<br /><br />In the event you weren't tipped off by the well-known face in front, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynette_Fromme">Lynnette "Squeaky" Fromme</a>, this is a photograph of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Manson">Charles Manson</a> Family, whose members were involved in the <a href="http://www.culteducation.com/manson.html">Labianca-Tate murders</a>. Maybe they aren't such a nice bunch of kids after all!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-vIIGhKmdx5mfqmEouFP13KKEgcBfG-TUC9ctCA50xZx9Rpg8L9nQx8eCfn8zfE84i5F_HwejcrHLnxod9sSlFfi27txbBYM5UNruLvc_rnOax-s7HOrQreqoWbnR4iX1mKaySWGlSS4/s1600-h/manson.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 130px; height: 139px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-vIIGhKmdx5mfqmEouFP13KKEgcBfG-TUC9ctCA50xZx9Rpg8L9nQx8eCfn8zfE84i5F_HwejcrHLnxod9sSlFfi27txbBYM5UNruLvc_rnOax-s7HOrQreqoWbnR4iX1mKaySWGlSS4/s200/manson.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5336802742822334498" border="0" /></a>The Charles Manson Family, as it was called, was a "Revelation" cult with beliefs built on a violently distorted interpretation of the <span style="font-style: italic;">Book of Revelation</span> of the Bible - <a href="http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/manson/mansonrevelation.html">Check this linked text for details</a>. Charles Manson, the leader of this cult, is considered one of modern histories more notable psychopathic madmen. He probably has more in common with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden">Usama Bin Laden</a>, the figurehead of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Qaeda">Al Qaeda</a>, than most in Western society would tend to believe, in spite of the fact that they came from dramatically different backgrounds.<br /><br />This leads back to the question - </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >If we were to interrogate members of the Manson Family, in the course of a criminal investigation, how would we go about it? </span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Would we keep them naked in cells, would we take their Bibles and toss these in the toilet? Not only would this be in violation of Federal laws, and international covenants, it is unlikely this would produce reliable information! Most importantly, abuse would probably have the effect of <span style="font-style: italic;">reinforcing</span> their distorted beliefs, as the mistreatment became interwoven with cult-based conspiracy theories, and used as divine justification for criminal actions. In the case of the Manson Family, we probably would have tried to separate those involved as decision makers from the participants on the fringes, and attempt to find some way of connecting with the latter, or <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deprogram">deprogram</a> them. Once removed from the cult mindset and milieu, no longer under Manson's influence, they probably would have been delighted to cooperate with authorities.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Not only is abuse of detainees illegal and immoral, it does not produce cooperation or reliable intelligence!</span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" ><br /><br />Torture is most effective when you wish the subject to accept your view of reality, and interpretation of events independently of the truth. This was the primary result of torture used during the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Inquisition">Spanish Inquisition</a>. The techniques used at Guantanamo Bay would have been just as effective in producing statements that the 9/11 attacks were a conspiracy of the Government of Iceland, as they were in trying to support the flawed contention that these attacks somehow involved Iraq and Saddam Hussein.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxikyQKSJH-7nF7Cm5Hb4tuWK-o2acj3r8kFB-a7YdvGqK9PCl3M4U8efWysPgaUiUKuvAkQbOCIOQhzMAlVRiv-bPGkOB2UAq6YRhyphenhyphenI8feQ-aArQra7D4YgU6TIMMukfoMXqTELuDtoA/s1600-h/2008_10_20b250.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 175px; height: 159px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxikyQKSJH-7nF7Cm5Hb4tuWK-o2acj3r8kFB-a7YdvGqK9PCl3M4U8efWysPgaUiUKuvAkQbOCIOQhzMAlVRiv-bPGkOB2UAq6YRhyphenhyphenI8feQ-aArQra7D4YgU6TIMMukfoMXqTELuDtoA/s200/2008_10_20b250.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5336831182112841234" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />The Saudi government, usually known for it's harsh edicts and punishment of criminals, has recognized this in their <a href="http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2008/ioi/081020-countering-terrorism.html">Al Qaeda related intelligence efforts</a>, and treatment of arrestees. The Saudi approach is built on the insight that the most effective strategy for countering faith-based terrorism involves removing participants from the cult mindset.<br /><br /><br />The United States has been very supportive of Saudi counter-terrorism efforts under former President Bush, and it is safe to assume that this support will continue under President Barack Obama. It may turn out in the end that our interrogation of detainees was not simply immoral or unproductive. At a deeper level, without a strong foundation in Muslim theology within our intelligence and law enforcement communities, we may not have had the <span style="font-style: italic;">capacity</span> to conduct effective interrogations in the first place.<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 204);">For some background you might wish to read these blog posts - "</span><a style="color: rgb(102, 102, 204);" href="http://raisbecksv.blogspot.com/2008/10/where-is-usama-bin-laden-anyway-one.html">Where is Usama Bin Laden Anyway</a><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 204);">"?, and "</span><a style="color: rgb(102, 102, 204);" href="http://raisbecksv.blogspot.com/2009/02/extremist-mentality-in-islam.html">The Extremist Mentality in Islam</a><span style="color: rgb(102, 102, 204);">".</span><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-23411447446272547792009-05-02T13:13:00.035-04:002009-06-17T19:53:38.177-04:00Who Killed Rafik Hariri?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdEex-thzcy6CdWw8Va-5rhiuWF0RtaKqX9iiNiNUAFSJa7AVLKKWgCuSrg0VVwaT46-gm7ezSfAtITFzJ3HF2fwZBiE8vTWF55Ax5aY0y0frreFqHafuzEL9gskUW8iUNsHYTOehiPcg/s1600-h/225px-Hariri.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 225px; height: 305px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdEex-thzcy6CdWw8Va-5rhiuWF0RtaKqX9iiNiNUAFSJa7AVLKKWgCuSrg0VVwaT46-gm7ezSfAtITFzJ3HF2fwZBiE8vTWF55Ax5aY0y0frreFqHafuzEL9gskUW8iUNsHYTOehiPcg/s320/225px-Hariri.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331308192087337682" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><span style="font-size:85%;">As followers of international affairs would know, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafik_Hariri">Rafik Hariri</a>, Prime Minister of Lebanon, was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafik_Hariri#Assassination">assassinated in a massive explosion</a> in 2005. This event shook Lebanese society severely, and at the time, suspicion was aimed at Syria, and Syrian government agents, as being both motivators and participants in this murder.<br /><br />S</span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >yria has been meddling in Lebanese affairs for a number of years, and it is natural that suspicion would fall on them!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />Many in Lebanon felt then, and believe today that this event was a Syrian conspiracy. They would know, wouldn't they? </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >They were there when it happened.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> My personal feeling is that the Syrian government is unlikely to have been behind Hariri's killing. They never had any real motive, or certainly not one that would overcome the liability of a major disruption in Lebanese society, a disruption that eventually resulted in the expulsion of their forces.<br /><br />It is interesting to look at events in our own nation that could provide insights in to the Lebanese response. I am referring to the attack on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11">World Trade Center in 2001</a> by a group of Fundamentalist Sunni fanatics. At the time, many in our government were convinced that Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi government must somehow have been involved. In retrospect this was almost certainly not true, and even </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >obviously</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> unlikely to many Americans. Most contradictory, Usama Bin Laden's involvement was well known, and Iraq under Saddam Hussein was not </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >in any way</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> welcoming to Muslim extremists. This aside, our government was so convinced of Iraqi involvement that it motivated military engagement of Iraq.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >The tendency to blame a nation's historical enemy for society-shaking attacks such as the Hariri killing, or World Trade Center attack of 2001, is common in history, and often unjustified. </span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire">Reichstag Fire</a>, a key event in the years leading to WWII, was blamed at the time by the emerging Nazis as a conspiracy of German communists. In retrospect, many suspect it was the Nazis themselves who set this fire. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria">Assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand</a> by Serbian nationalists in 1914 may, or may not have involved agents of the Serbian government. This made little difference to European leaders, who considered it a pretext for World War. More recently there is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai_attacks">Terrorist Attack at Mumbai</a>, blamed by many in India on their historical foe Pakistan. It is unlikely there was any Pakistani government involvement.<br /><br />Who was responsible for Hariri's killing then? This remains an open question. It may not have been a major conspiracy at all, and might only have involved a few participants. The size of the explosion </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >does not</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> dictate the size of the conspiracy! This is an important lesson from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_bombing">Murrah Federal Building Bombing</a> in Oklahoma City.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4JC2Gq8ic-KGXRac_aO3WSg4Jv6HWb1_UXyyo42xJ4oZ1xIqZju_ccF0NlJP6f7lq6J8XjWbb_XAdv-f0yRrd44YCibufepsKSb35IQ7nvarhTYJ0lOeetpS1zBXShYuPJh-mtpvnRyI/s1600-h/180px-FBIphoto04-19-93.JPG"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 180px; height: 120px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4JC2Gq8ic-KGXRac_aO3WSg4Jv6HWb1_UXyyo42xJ4oZ1xIqZju_ccF0NlJP6f7lq6J8XjWbb_XAdv-f0yRrd44YCibufepsKSb35IQ7nvarhTYJ0lOeetpS1zBXShYuPJh-mtpvnRyI/s320/180px-FBIphoto04-19-93.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331345736428527570" border="0" /></a><br />To me, some of the circumstances surrounding the Hariri attack seem reflective of our own Oklahoma City bombing. One might do well to take a closer look </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >within</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> Lebanese society for suspects, rather than blame this event automatically on external foes. There are numerous extremist factions within Lebanon who could have been responsible. As a nation, Lebanon has been in a recurring state of civil unrest for decades.<br /><br />There is, of course, the question of <a href="http://www.cfr.org/publication/9155/">Hezbollah</a>. Could they have been involved? They have the means, and certainly seem to have benefited from the resulting instability. It is important to remember, however, there are credible scholars of history who take the position the Nazis had</span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" > no</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> involvement in the burning of the German Reichstag building - It was nothing but a very fortunate event for them. This certainly </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >could</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> be the case with Hezbollah.<br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);"><br /></span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span><br /></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-90247646513798272382009-02-21T18:29:00.022-05:002009-05-02T18:51:56.869-04:00The Extremist Mentality in Islam<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmgDiaClG8r4CWqXCruqbNFWJH3dUI90Oxr3dMf4zwCxzK0oXflLaoL9VZklGJCO3HDlm6z8gckR2VAANLSawcdxe-4WQ-g6s2gIwjz8MXG461CWvTsZffWcCXsRmjYYtN7Fxrx1SiLQI/s1600-h/180px-Gottfrid_af_Bouillon.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 180px; height: 188px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmgDiaClG8r4CWqXCruqbNFWJH3dUI90Oxr3dMf4zwCxzK0oXflLaoL9VZklGJCO3HDlm6z8gckR2VAANLSawcdxe-4WQ-g6s2gIwjz8MXG461CWvTsZffWcCXsRmjYYtN7Fxrx1SiLQI/s320/180px-Gottfrid_af_Bouillon.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5305397664598545762" border="0" /></a><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" ><br /></span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" ><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;">My posts and internet discussions tend to focus on inter-faith relations and terrorism issues. It is not that I enjoy it, but there really is </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-family:trebuchet ms;" >much</span><span style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"> to say. The Wikipedia-origin drawing of the eleventh-century Crusader,</span> </span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" ><a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godfrey_of_Bouillon">Godfrey of Bouillon</a>, should provide a clue where I am going with this.<br /><br />Religious extremism and conquest are nothing new, and the </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Jihad</span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" > of Islamic extremism should not be any sort of mystery to one having an acquaintance with European history. It is really nothing more, or less, than the Islamic <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crusades">crusades</a>, in a modern setting, with a vague goal of a return to <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.islamicity.com/MOSQUE/IHAME/Sec7.htm">Islam's golden age</a>. The phenomenon is amplified by the military legacy of the birth of Islam, which may be part of the reason the Muslim counterpart to the Christian reactionary, who rants in bad-imitation King James English down by the subway station, becomes a major political and military force in Arabic society. Legions of followers are absorbed by their phony tenth-century classical Arabic prose, and motivated to acts of destruction by lies disguised as Quranic-style text, appearing only slightly removed from the words of the prophet.<br /><br />In Christianity this variety of hype, usually built around the Book of Revelation, is widely known as damaging and destructive, and is far enough removed from mainstream faith that we discard it easily. In Islam it seems to work however.<br /><br />Back to the point-<br /><br />Analogy is a very powerful intellectual tool, and I have wondered at times if it has been overlooked in that philosophical effort to uncover what distinguishes men from machines, or been considered as a factor in the <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test">Turing test</a>. Religious and historical analogies certainly have applications in security and counter-terrorism! As an example, we should consider why pressuring nations to control terrorist organizations operating within their territory is only of limited usefulness. Consider the relationship between the <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_Templar">Knights Templar</a> and the monarchy of France. Is it realistic to assume that Syria, or even Iran, can dictate orders to <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.cfr.org/publication/9155/">Hezbollah</a>?<br /><br />In closing, History and Religious Philosophy are as important to the counter-terrorism arsenal as Forensics, Diplomacy, and Military science. With a little thought and practice, it isn't difficult to stay ahead of the analyst community. Certainly, religion and history based models produce more reliable results than efforts built entirely on geopolitics, or centralized conspiracy arguments built around </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >Hitler-like</span><span style=";font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" > personality cults, the latter being almost exclusively damaging.<br /><br />Of course, no advance in counter-terrorism would have the impact of the wide understanding within Islamic culture that these extremist elements are no different from the loathed Western crusaders. <span style="font-style: italic;">That could change the whole game!<br /><br /><br /></span></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-83623785118046923752008-11-30T17:35:00.030-05:002009-05-02T19:05:26.729-04:00Who is behind the Tragedy in Mumbai?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3NHD2d7MsQgcmy8NhIc8QpsFsre5pA7TRCJtA2Lx7MjYrDWIfFeFNlpF48-i4b8awExIuKNcK39F2GMXbOJ-DNLMPJzLO4wBCkOXvFMbjyPWaKIMSE38PmSSfgs8jirKAo10zdRhz7k0/s1600-h/754px-Gateway_of_India.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5274588686477738114" style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; float: left; width: 233px; height: 199px;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3NHD2d7MsQgcmy8NhIc8QpsFsre5pA7TRCJtA2Lx7MjYrDWIfFeFNlpF48-i4b8awExIuKNcK39F2GMXbOJ-DNLMPJzLO4wBCkOXvFMbjyPWaKIMSE38PmSSfgs8jirKAo10zdRhz7k0/s320/754px-Gateway_of_India.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" >What security specialists should be reviewing carefully is the unique aspect of this terrorist event - <span style="font-style: italic;">The attack</span><em> was staged from the ocean</em><span style="font-style: italic;">! </span> It might be a good idea to study landing operations in military history, both in conventional warfare and terrorism. There may be some interesting answers to important questions.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:85%;" ><br /><br />When all of the dust settles, it will be likely be discovered that there is no single terrorist organization that planned, coordinated, and conducted the attack - At least no single organization that existed a month ago! The majority of the attackers were members of, or associated with Indian or Pakistani based Muslim extremist groups, but the funding and coordination were probably a joint effort of native extremist elements and Middle Eastern Sunni jihadists (Al Qaeda or close associates) . There was more going on here than just the attack at Mumbai. This was also very likely intended as a tactical exercise. This is what motivated external participation.<br /><br />On recent claims by the "<a href="http://buzzminute.com/pages/deccan%20mujahedin"><em>Deccan Mujaheddin</em></a>":<br /><br />Another important aspect of this attack involves the targeting of Jews and foreigners.<span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><em>Islamic extremists do this when they are trying to gain legitimacy in the broader context of Islamic fundamentalism</em>. If there had been a monastery close by, they probably would have targeted it as well. It indicates to me that this claim by the "Deccan Mujaheddin" probably has some substance. This attack may have been their <span style="font-style: italic;">coming out</span> announcement, as a new terrorist player in the region.<br /><br />Of course, they are nothing like new players, they are really the same people who have been blowing things up in India and Pakistan, in the name of Islam, for a few years. The difference is that <span style="font-style: italic;">this</span> group probably now has some level of external operational and financial support emanating from Sunni extremists in the Middle East. What they<span style="font-style: italic;"> <span>want</span></span> is to be India's version of "Al Qaeda in Iraq"!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 153);font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" ><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">If you are motivated by this topic, you might find a blog post on the</span> </span><span style="font-size:85%;"><a style="font-style: italic; font-family: trebuchet ms;" href="http://raisbecksv.blogspot.com/2008/10/where-is-usama-bin-laden-anyway-one.html">Hunt for Bin Laden </a></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);font-family:trebuchet ms;font-size:85%;" >interesting.</span><br /><br /></div>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-1060876257394553352008-10-04T11:09:00.010-04:002009-10-07T14:56:27.551-04:00Time Out!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPrlKz0g8Vx_uuaPSJlDdzwV3m4gw5LXlwxGhSR_y6zwdVquW3Sdt-S-JOUetb9fx8-UDGwHpz9MpUR2YrrpvtLxFVfYUIkU6gSIcdgx6jGccGud9ZXj3DnATWoPJhF5Yrd-KVnnIinQs/s1600-h/Walden+Pond.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5253319428857675042" style="cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPrlKz0g8Vx_uuaPSJlDdzwV3m4gw5LXlwxGhSR_y6zwdVquW3Sdt-S-JOUetb9fx8-UDGwHpz9MpUR2YrrpvtLxFVfYUIkU6gSIcdgx6jGccGud9ZXj3DnATWoPJhF5Yrd-KVnnIinQs/s320/Walden+Pond.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><br />Every once an a while, a free windows theme download comes along that has the unusual capacity to actually impact one's environment. I found this one recently of <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walden_Pond">Walden Pond</a> - Isn't it wonderful! Click the image for the full resolution.<br /><br />Next, if you have Napster, Rhapsody, whatever - It might be nice to add some music. My personal choice would be Brahms Piano Sonata No. 3 in F minor, Op. 5: II. Andante espressivo by <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.jonnakamatsu.com/disco/">Jon Nakamatsu</a>, which could be found on any major music service . Free music isn't as common is it once was on the net. You might check out the link provided - His stuff is superb, and worth paying for.<br /><br />If you are willing to settle for low-fi, here is a <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKUZXd2Uq18&feature=related">YouTube video of Claudio Arrau</a> playing this wonderful expressive movement. He is one of the greats, albeit a somewhat controversial stylist.<br /><br />Now, close your office door and prepare for an in-house vacation.<br /><br />( Brahms is for saps you say? - Ok it's true! Here, try this instead, <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqT9bt7qe_c">Bach Cello Suite #1 in G Major </a>)<br /><br />(Note 10/07/09 - Some of the Youtube Links have since been removed - I will replace them as soon as I find suitable substitutes)<br /><br /><br /></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-38523495062019727782008-10-03T15:28:00.002-04:002009-05-02T18:19:18.701-04:00Metaphysical Musings<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwHhpGwAndHNGunVGPe1jjWEdxePMFBEMEjzAujIXbzZFOoW7kOUHx-HsUsHTKJ_GrQBx3PNYhyphenhyphenzxLFkAS75_-w1plCK3dOXM38Nwq-hlPAcu6SiiJ4Ltw1ZJIekXZG2CraG5s8LHZF4/s1600-h/einst_sail.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5253014503599742690" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwHhpGwAndHNGunVGPe1jjWEdxePMFBEMEjzAujIXbzZFOoW7kOUHx-HsUsHTKJ_GrQBx3PNYhyphenhyphenzxLFkAS75_-w1plCK3dOXM38Nwq-hlPAcu6SiiJ4Ltw1ZJIekXZG2CraG5s8LHZF4/s320/einst_sail.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><br />This is the text of a letter I sent to a physicist at ETH Zurich back in the mid 1990s. It probably isn't anything new, but one of those concepts that people present routinely, only to be rejected.<br /><br />Over time I came to believe that it is, in essence, what Einstein, Podolski, and Rosen had tried to explain, just to have it turned in to a fairly straightforward paradox by the physics community - Who were unwilling, or unable to consider metatheoretical incompleteness in their field.<br /><br />CONJECTURE:<br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >The Tautology - The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle is universally true is an undecidable property over the set of particles in the universe.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />Applying the tools of Naive set theory to the experiment viewed as an endomorphic system, it appears to be impossible to produce a logical proof of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle using generalised transfinite induction. This is not, unfortunately, sufficient to prove the conjecture.<br /><br />WHAT I BELIEVE CAN BE PROVEN:<br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >1) There exist statements in particle physics that cannot be proven by applying the rules of inference to the set of particles in the universe.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >2) Particle physics is not monomorphic.</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br />Statement (2) follows directly from statement (1) - with the unusual result that there can be more than one logically consistent, and mutually incompatible theorys of the universe ( endomorphic and exomorphic ? ). The set theorist would immediately recognize that the difficulty results from the fact that the cardinality of countably infinite sets of objects ( particles in the universe ) corresponds to that of the natural numbers. In fact, it is possible to construct a rudimentary, albeit nearly trivial, particle theory using a generalized form of the peano axioms.<br /><br />Once it has been established that one can support at least part of particle theory based on the peano axioms it becomes clear that the allowable structures ( groups , rings , fields, etc. - in the sense of P. Lorenzen ) on this subset of particle theory correspond to precisely those allowable for the set of natural numbers. Consequently, the incompleteness theorem of Kurt Godel can be applied directly. Structure theory turns out to be a very powerful tool for relating mathematics to it's applications. I find it to be more tractable then Category theory as well. In addition, as algebra and specifically Group theory return to the mainstream in modern physics, the tools of Naive set theory and mathematical logic will become increasingly relevant.<br /><br />Philosophically, mathematicians have accepted for years that the incompleteness of Number Theory is not a flaw in mathematics, it is an intrinsic limitation associated with the way human beings perceive transfinite sets of discrete objects There was a time when mathematicians considered the theory of numbers to be a divine "blueprint" for intellectual reason, just as many physicists consider the theory of physics to be a potentially completeable blueprint for reality. Physicists will eventually accept, as did mathematicians, that even if their field is divinely inspired, it is not divinely executed. Physics is, after all, a product of the combined experience of human beings, and consequently, constrained by the limitations of the human consciousness.<br /><br />Recently there has been a movement in the United States towards the view that, for philosophical reasons, the correct approach to physics is to model the observer as part of the system. In essence, the endomorphic model is the correct one. This opens up the whole question of provability in self-referential systems.<br /><br />I am of the position that the question of decidability and provability in particle theory are consequences of the syntactic structure of particle theory itself. This is a very slightly broader interpretation than would result from the position that paradoxes are intrinsic to self-referential systems.<br /><br />At a very basic level I suspect that particle physics will arrive at the same conclusion that number theory did sixty years ago. Provability and decidability are closely related concepts (I am hesitant to apply the over-used term "dual"). In mathematics, if you attempt to produce an axiomatic foundation in which the theory of the natural numbers is both unique and complete, one discovers that there are statements that are not recursively decidable. If you build a structure in which all statements are decidable, you sacrifice uniqueness and provability.<br /><br />I suspect, heuristically, that any attempt by physics to put particle theory in a box will result in two probable outcomes. Either one will discover that the box is of unbounded volume - not all statements are recursively decidable, or if the box is of bounded dimension one cannot "plug up" all the holes - there will exist unprovable statements and uniqueness is lost.<br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);font-size:85%;" >I want to emphasize</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);font-size:85%;" > that this all seems horribly deep - It really isn't!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);font-size:85%;" >Why couldn't one create a model for the universe in which the observer is part of the system (endomorphic), and a model for the universe in which the observer is external (exomorphic), and does not influence his/her surroundings? Is it really that implausible that by doing so, you could create two incompatible theories that fit observation? Why not?</span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><br /></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"><span style="font-size:85%;">There really isn't anything spooky about this. Of course, the argument always deteriorates in to debates about multiple realities, and such. As far as I am concerned, there is only one reality - The one we live in. Any phenomenon that is fundamentally unobservable, directly, or indirectly, was never part of reality to begin with.<br /></span><br /></span>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2680645097016504238.post-12646905376024912582008-10-03T13:51:00.007-04:002009-05-02T18:19:59.628-04:00Where is Usama Bin Laden anyway?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7wRWXRZqLa9l3Zhioz2-DMLfqsM-nidsqiJjFzYzgBCNO3yiDYcsOlXMfuSeaCrQpb_B4IY33HQHjn9b6aUPehI58skvqgVMLSzCf4KD-c1dCZNt-vcqjezKUcOxBK4JSaXBB_ito2M/s1600-h/saladin1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5253013277915877026" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7wRWXRZqLa9l3Zhioz2-DMLfqsM-nidsqiJjFzYzgBCNO3yiDYcsOlXMfuSeaCrQpb_B4IY33HQHjn9b6aUPehI58skvqgVMLSzCf4KD-c1dCZNt-vcqjezKUcOxBK4JSaXBB_ito2M/s320/saladin1.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><p class="blogContent"><span style="font-size:85%;">I would like to believe that this is the question of the decade. It certainly should be!<br /><br />One of the difficulties we have been having in locating Bin Laden surrounds the issue of motive. What is he trying to accomplish - What does he want? Does he even </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >know</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> what he wants beyond pain, bloodshed, and mayhem? My sense is that he </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >does</span><span style="font-size:85%;">.<br /><br />As individuals, and as nations, we tend to perceive the world around us in the context of our image and interests. Anyone who does not reflect the interests of ourselves, and our society, tends to be invisible at best. Usama Bin Laden has done a fine job of eluding us - is this related? </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >It may well be!</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> We have placed ourselves at the center of Bin Laden's world, and at the focus of his cross-hairs, in the assumption that his goal is to defeat the United States, the West, and the non-Islamic world in general. More recently, Bin Laden has aimed his diatribes at Israel - Clearly then, he wishes to destroy the Jewish state.<br /><br />Maybe it is time to consider the possibility that these are really </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >secondary</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> goals! Consider them as major priorities subordinate to an even </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >grander</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> plan. This is where the self-image issue comes in to play. What grander or more devious plans could there possibly be beyond attacking and defeating the United States, or destroying Israel?<br /><br />It is helpful to consider Usama Bin Laden's anachronistic mind set. He is immersed in a fantasy role-playing game, a variety of </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >Dungeons and Dragons</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> built on a distorted view of Arabic history and Islam's Golden Age. He has fashioned himself a great warrior-prophet in the Islamic tradition - The heir to the legacy of Saladin, and the <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashidun" target="_self">Khulafah Rashidun</a> - The rightly guided Caliphs.<br /><br />In this light one could assume that Mecca and Medina, the cities at the heart of Islam, would figure in his plans. We may be underestimating how important control of these sacred cities is to Usama Bin Laden. Maybe what he </span><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;font-size:85%;" >really</span><span style="font-size:85%;"> wants is the Ka'ba! Consider his actions to date as preludes, intended to prove to the Islamic world that he is the great Muslim warrior deserving of this prize.<br /><br />Where ever he has chosen to hide, it is my firm belief that he has been very careful not to isolate himself from the <a style="font-style: italic;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabia" target="_self">Arabian peninsula</a>, or do anything to preempt the opportunity to make his grand entrance to Islam's holiest shrine.</span></p><p class="blogContent"><br /></p>Tim Raisbeckhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02047238052033065079noreply@blogger.com